光華講壇——社會(huì)名流與企業(yè)家論壇第6584期
主題：Quantitative economic history of the Qing Dynasty and modern banking development of China (清代量化經(jīng)濟(jì)史與中國(guó)現(xiàn)代銀行的發(fā)展)
主講人：蘇州大學(xué) 顧乾坤 副教授
主持人：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué) 黃健 副教授
時(shí)間：2024-6-21 10:00-11:00
會(huì)議地點(diǎn)：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)柳林校區(qū)誠(chéng)正樓650會(huì)議室
主辦單位：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院
主講人簡(jiǎn)介：
顧乾坤是香港中文大學(xué)商學(xué)院金融學(xué)博士，蘇州大學(xué)商學(xué)院副教授。他的研究方向包括公司財(cái)務(wù)、家族企業(yè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)史。顧乾坤的研究成果發(fā)表在Journal of Law and Economics，International Review of Financial Analysis, Accounting and Finance，Economic Modelling，China Journal of Accounting Research，F(xiàn)inance Research Letters，Emerging Markets Finance and Trade，Asia-Pacific Economic History Review，經(jīng)濟(jì)管理，新財(cái)富等國(guó)內(nèi)外期刊。他主持一項(xiàng)國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金，參與多項(xiàng)國(guó)家級(jí)和省部級(jí)課題。獲得第五屆香樟金融學(xué)論壇優(yōu)秀論文獎(jiǎng)，第五屆“中國(guó)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會(huì)青年杯”提名獎(jiǎng)。擔(dān)任Economic Modelling, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Pacific Basin Finance Journal, Finance Research Letters, China Journal of Accounting Research，China Journal of Accounting Studies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Pacific Economic Review，Economic Analysis and Policy，《經(jīng)濟(jì)管理》等刊物的匿名審稿人。他還是Family Glory家族企業(yè)研究助理，參與多家上市家族企業(yè)的商業(yè)咨詢(xún)。
內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介：The Qing Dynasty, being the most recent feudal dynasty in China's history, marked the beginning of the transformative period of China's modern history at its end. Quantifying the history of the Qing Dynasty and examining its impact on China's financial development is pivotal for understanding the relative lag in the development of China's modern financial markets and the Great Divergence between China and the West. Using modern banking data from 1896 to 1936 as a measure of financial development, we analyze the effect of the literary policy changes by comparing regions that involved in the literary policy changes with adjacent regions that did not. The results reveal that the literary policy changes significantly reduced the number of modern banks, and this effect remains significant even after controlling for geographic, economic, cultural, and political variables. By using the distance to the hometowns of four prominent scholars from the late Ming and early Qing periods as an instrumental variable, we find the effect of the literary policy remains robust. Our mechanism analysis indicates that the impact of the literary policy was primarily achieved through the weakening of social capital and the reduction of external financing demand, which further increased market interest rates and the incidence of emergency loans. Additionally, our findings suggest that the mitigating effects of modern technological shocks (the telegraph and the postal network) on the negative impact of the literary policy changes are effective in the short term but not in the long term.
清代是距今最近的封建王朝，清朝末年拉開(kāi)了波瀾壯闊的中國(guó)近現(xiàn)代史。量化清代歷史，研究其是否對(duì)中國(guó)金融發(fā)展產(chǎn)生影響，對(duì)于理解中國(guó)現(xiàn)代金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的相對(duì)滯后以及中國(guó)與西方之間的“大分流”具有重要意義。使用1896年至1936年現(xiàn)代銀行數(shù)據(jù)作為金融發(fā)展的衡量指標(biāo)，我們比較了在清代涉及文字政策變更的地區(qū)與相鄰未涉及文字政策變更的地區(qū)，以研究清代政策對(duì)現(xiàn)今金融發(fā)展的效應(yīng)。結(jié)果顯示，政策發(fā)生變更的地區(qū)顯著減少了現(xiàn)代銀行的數(shù)量，即使在控制地理、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化和政治變量后，這一負(fù)面影響依然顯著。通過(guò)使用晚明和清初四位著名學(xué)者的故鄉(xiāng)距離作為工具變量，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)文字政策變更的影響仍然穩(wěn)健。機(jī)制分析表明，文字政策變更的影響主要通過(guò)削弱社會(huì)資本和減少外部融資需求實(shí)現(xiàn)，這進(jìn)一步提高了市場(chǎng)利率和應(yīng)急貸款的發(fā)生率。此外，我們的研究還表明，現(xiàn)代技術(shù)沖擊（如電報(bào)和郵政網(wǎng)絡(luò)）在短期內(nèi)對(duì)文字政策變更影響的緩解效果顯著，但在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)則不明顯。
